It is the iPhone 4’s moment of AI. After Open AI’s keynotes and drama story, here are some of my thoughts.
Today, whether it’s developers, the capital market, or the media, everyone is comparing AI to the mobile internet era. In the past 20 years, the internet has cleansed and rebuilt every industry.
Will AI do the same?
In my opinion, in a certain sense, AI will have a more impactful effect than the internet. However, it won’t necessarily disrupt existing internet giants but rather give birth to new blue ocean markets. Along the way, there will be different stages throughout the process. As entrepreneurs, investors or participants, we need to identify the stage and make suitable decisions.
AI VS Mobile internet
Perhaps not every application will undergo a complete overhaul. Many applications have already found practical applications in their domains, and simply incorporating AI as an auxiliary function can lead to upgrades and iterations.
Take Windows operating system as an example; it has been evolving continuously and Microsoft has added copilot into Win11, these applications establishing a symbiotic relationship with A.
However, for emerging startups originating from the fringes, they may enter the mainstream market in a completely new form, challenging the established positions of existing giants.
How to identify the timing?
Looking back, the release of the iPhone in 2007 marked the beginning of a fragile era for the entire mobile internet. In 2010, with the launch of the iPhone 4, the overall framework of mobile internet capabilities became relatively sound.
Another crucial point came in 2011 when mobile internet applications exploded, giving rise to a series of companies established in that year, such as Instagram and Uber, which are now well-known.
As for AI, where is the next key milestone? Perhaps, we need to pay attention to the development of architectures like Transformer, as they have the potential to unlock new opportunities in areas such as video models and protein models.
Where are the next big opportunities for AI?
Imagine if the Transformer model or other AI architectures could accurately predict the next frame of a video, generating a dynamic, evolving 3D world. This would give rise to next-generation entertainment content platforms similar to TikTok. A user-generated content (UGC) based 3D AI TikTok?
If AI could accurately predict protein sequences, it would lead to new advancements in drug development. Similarly, accurate prediction of the next step of human actions could enable human-like robots to overcome limitations.
In this perspective, the current AI model can be compared to the early versions of the iPhone, waiting for a similar opportunity for a significant breakthrough.
Are the growth strategy same for AI and Internet product?
AI applications differ from the free tools and products of the internet era. AI products carry a high cost of inference, making them less likely to be entirely free from the start.
However, ultimately successful AI applications still require a large user base (e.g., ChatGPT / CharacterAI). But challenges arise when capital no longer supports subsidies, and achieving the explosive growth phenomenon seen in the mobile internet era becomes more challenging without charging fees.
Midjourney is a good example. In this case, every acquired user becomes a paying user. Therefore, it is unlikely to rely on massive fission marketing and may instead focus on linear growth.
Recognize the cycle, play smart
Looking back at the development of the mobile internet era, initially, we see fake opportunities like flashlight tools, those APPs gained millions of users in a short time, but they were eliminated very soon. Just as what we see in the OpenAI’s keynote, GPTs kill all AI Automation Agencies.
After that, super apps came, and ultimately evolved into a few must-have APPs for everyone, such as Facebook, TikTok, Amazon, Grubhub…
The field of AI may have a similar development pattern, and we need to recognize this cycle and wisely choose our strategies. In the AI era, we need to play smart, identify future opportunities, and not be swayed by short-term trends.